1 / 5 · COCKPIT

Find the Edge. Verify the Opportunity. Control the Risk.

Liplop monitors prediction markets across multiple venues, identifies potential price discrepancies and evaluates whether they can become viable hedged positions.

One cockpit brings together market data, candidate opportunities, validation queues and system status. Every opportunity must pass contract checks and execution constraints before it can be considered for trading.

Pair	Venues	Best	Median	Why no trade
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?pending decision	Limitless × Polymarket	1.34¢	0.70¢	THIN BOOK
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?pending decision	Predict.fun × Polymarket	0.86¢	0.22¢	BELOW 0.90¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?pending decision	Predict.fun × Polymarket	0.53¢	0.32¢	BELOW 0.90¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?model verdict: different	Predict.fun × Polymarket	0.46¢	0.46¢	BELOW 0.90¢
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?approved pair, tradable	Limitless × Predict.fun	0.33¢	0.33¢	THIN BOOK

160 pairs had live books on both sides. None crossed the entry threshold in the last 24 hours. 1,296 opportunities have been detected since Sep 18; the latest, on Oct 18, was StandX FDV above $2B at 3.07¢ net on 90 contracts and was skipped because the order fell below the Predict.fun minimum.

System status

Collection gaps over 60 s, 24 h

0

Snapshots lost by the writer

0

Forced REST fallback

≤ 0.03%

Rate-limit responses (429), 1 h

0

Open alerts

Prediction journal

Mode

changed only by a person

Global mode

PAPER

Paper since

Sep 22, 2026

Current period

14.7 days

Hedge attempts this period

0 of 30

Live gate

2 / 5 · CONFIRMATION QUEUE

AI Finds Potential Matches. Validation Decides What Can Proceed.

Markets often describe similar events using different wording. But similar wording does not guarantee identical outcomes.

The Confirmation Queue collects pairs that require a decision. Each pair must be evaluated against its contract definitions, resolution rules and other critical fields before it can be approved.

Queue · 137 pairs

six from the live queue

3 / 5 · PAIR LABELING

Same Topic. Different Rules. Different Outcomes.

Pair Labeling shows both market definitions side by side, making it possible to inspect the exact fields behind a matching decision.

Liplop compares more than titles. It evaluates thresholds, time windows, comparison operators, resolution sources and rules for ties, cancellations and postponements.

Marks in the centre column are the fields that differ or could not be established.

Field comparison

4 / 5 · PAPER

A Positive Spread Means Nothing Until the Economics Work.

Paper mode evaluates how a potential strategy behaves without placing real-money orders.

It accounts for execution delays, available order-book depth, fees, capital limits and whether both legs of a hedge can be assembled.

The objective is to test the complete trade, not just the price difference that initially attracted attention.

Worked example · one matched pair

Leg

Quoted

Effective

Limitless · YES

0.4500

0.4639

Predict.fun · NO

0.5200

0.5298

Combined cost

0.9700

0.9937

Payout at resolution

1.0000

Edge per contract

3.00¢

0.63¢

0¢1¢2¢3¢

Limitless fee 1.39¢ Predict.fun fee 0.98¢ Net edge 0.63¢

Execution · since Sep 22

Hedges assembled

18 of 27 · 67%

Second leg failed after the first filled

31% · n = 26

Edge gone before execution

11 of 29

Order book fetch, p50 / p90

124 / 347 ms

Unwinds of a lone leg

8 · −$4.39

Paper fees paid

$3.58

Capital limits

Daily capital deployment

$10,000

Capital per pair

$50

Capital per venue

$250

Maximum order size

$50

Simultaneously open pairs

5

Paper results

Since paper startSep 22 – Oct 26, 2026

1,296opportunities detectedsince Sep 18

18hedges assembled

70approved pairs resolved

0resolution disagreements

$301.88in 8 open paper positions$296.27 at best bid

Period 5 auditSep 29 – Oct 11, 2026

167candidate opportunities

4 / 4selected hedges assembled

44pairs reached resolution

1.64¢median predicted edge

2.14¢realized edge, paper accounting

Current periodsince Oct 11, 2026

14.7days

1opportunity

0hedge attempts

Closedlive gate

Limited paper-testing sample. Simulated execution, not live returns.

5 / 5 · TEMPLATES & FEEDS

Reliable Matching Starts with Reliable Definitions.

Liplop organizes markets into recognizable contract families and tracks the sources used to determine their outcomes.

Templates help the system understand what a market measures. Feed validation helps establish whether two markets actually use compatible resolution mechanisms.

Both are necessary for reliable contract comparison.

Contract families

Family	Example market	Markets	Parsed by template
Up or Down	Bitcoin Up or Down · Oct 27, 7:35–7:40 AM ET	112,793	84%
Price Threshold	StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	95,305	<0.1%
Winner	Winner of a season or tournament	43,166	<0.1%
Match Winner	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NIP · Map 2	13,793	99%
Macro Print	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	208	19%

Markets a template cannot parse go to AI extraction, which runs within a daily model quota.

Resolution sources

Predict.funText outcomes settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle; crypto Up or Down markets on Chainlink Data Streams

PolymarketContracts settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle

LimitlessPrice markets settle on exchange or oracle feeds, for example Binance BTCUSDT

51 price feeds catalogued: Pyth 29, Binance 14, Chainlink 8.

Find the Edge. Verify the Opportunity. Control the Risk.

Edge watch · last 24 h

System status

Mode

AI Finds Potential Matches. Validation Decides What Can Proceed.

Queue · 137 pairs

Same Topic. Different Rules. Different Outcomes.

Field comparison

A Positive Spread Means Nothing Until the Economics Work.

Worked example · one matched pair

Execution · since Sep 22

Capital limits

Paper results

Reliable Matching Starts with Reliable Definitions.

Contract families

Resolution sources